THE NIGERIA IMMIGRATION SERVICE RECRUITMENT TEST AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN NIGERIA

a. THE IMMIGRATION SERVICE RECRUITMENT DRAMA
Recently, we saw vivid pictures of a segment of the Army of the unemployed in Nigeria. We saw a massive head-count, we saw desperation, we saw tears, we saw death... 
b. UNEMPLOYMENT: A MANIFEST, YET IGNORED PROBLEM
I have repeatedly said before now, that unemployment is at the heart of the crime and violence in this Country, for where do you think the political thugs and the willing tools in the hands of political paymasters come from? Certainly, from the Army of the unemployed. Recent statistics put Nigeria's unemployment rate at 23.9% and our Youth unemployment rate at 54%, but I think these figures are pretty conservative. The problem is masked by our extended family system and the fact that an employed person may actually be catering for about seven to ten unemployed people. 
c. IS THERE REALLY A CORRELATION BETWEEN GROWTH AND OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY?
The problem stems from the fact that the economy, though growing at a year -on-year average of 6% in the last ten years, is not creating opportunities for people at the bottom of the pyramid and also throwing up very few opportunities for movement into the middle class. Growth merely mean the creation of more billionaires and the purchase of more private jets and the display of crass materialism by the less than 1% of Nigerians in the upper class on the streets of London, Paris and New York.
d. WHAT DRIVES CLASS MOVEMENT IN NIGERIA - IS IT HARD-WORK OR CORRUPTION?
Certainly, wealth in Nigeria is largely driven by corruption and rent-taking, made possible by access to power as opposed to hard work, rare genius and a culture of investment and industry as it happens in other climes.
e. ADDRESSING MASS UNEMPLOYMENT
Nigeria's unemployment, is driven by structural and institutional failures and the only way to address it, is to do the following 5 things:
1. Over-haul the system - reduce or eradicate corruption and rent-taking
2. Improve the tax system by making those who earn more, pay more for the maintenance of the social order
3. Revamp the social security system - lets work towards getting a credible figure of both skilled and unskilled unemployed people in every nook and cranny of Nigeria and build a support system which does not glorify indolence but works to support people by building the right skills and matching skills with the right job / entrepreneurial opportunities.
4. Strengthen the institutional framework - Rather than celebrate wealth without questioning its source, let's create a system where the nations resources are deployed for the greater good and allow honest private initiative thrive.
5. Work to create a smaller government and a bigger economy - Reduce the size of government and deploy resources to social and physical infrastructure which create the the right investment and business environment. Let government play the role of the enabler and not a back-door participant, devolve powers to the regions, create a smaller government and a bigger economy underscored by strong and unwavering rules which does not cringe in the face of nepotism or corruption and prioritize sectors of the economy which has the greatest potential to employ more people like Agriculture, Manufacturing and Construction.

REBASING NIGERIA'S GDP AND THE WORLD BANK REPORT ON POVERTY - MATTERS ARISING

Interesting news, Nigeria's Gross Domestic Products now stands at 510 Billion Dollars, purportedly making Nigeria the biggest economy in Africa, but that is not the real news. The real news is that we have a growing economy side by side growing poverty.The real news is that there is growth in the midst of high unemployment? Does this not point to some form of dysfunction in the macro economy? I platform my argument on three interesting scenarios thrown up by the rebased GDP figures:

1. HOW COME NIGERIA'S NOLLYWOOD IS DOING BETTER THAN BOLLYWOOD WITH A MORE ORGANISED STRUCTURE?
The rebased GDP figures shows that the Services Sector has dethroned Agriculture as the highest contributor to Nigeria's GDP as Services Industry which hitherto contributed less than 10% now contributes about 50% to Nigeria's GDP. This is mainly due to new figures coming through from Telecoms, Information Technology, Movies (Nollywood) and Music under the Services sector. The Services sector raked in about 260 billion dollars (about 40 Trillion naira) out of Nigeria's total GDP figure of 510 billion dollars. The question to ask then is how come Nollywood racked in $5.6bn when Bollywood with a better industry structure is doing $3.2bn? How was the figure for Nollywood calculated without an organised Studio, Box Office and Distribution System? Ofcourse Nollywood indeed has great potential to do more but I reckon that government needs to help create the right structure for the thriving of a creative economy, but that is not currently happening with Intellectual Property rights abuse currently at its highest. I reckon the number of jobs that is being lost to Pirates is something that we need to look into.
2. HOW COME AGRICULTURE CONTRIBUTES ABOUT A QUARTER TO THE GDP WHILE MANUFACTURING IS DOING A PALTRY 7%
Aside from what the current Minister of Agriculture is doing to support small-holder farmers, is there a long term strategy for Agriculture which can push output Northward and help the move from Farm-gate to Factory-gate? This is because normally, Agriculture should function as a primary industry which supports the secondary Industry - Manufacturing. But with Manufacturing contributing only 7% in the rebased GDP figures? Does this not give the government cause for worry? 
3. HOW DO WE TRANSITION OUR ECONOMY FROM A PIRATE ECONOMY TO AN ORGANISED ECONOMY?
From the rebased figures, it is apparent that growth came only from the Nigerian enterprise spirit and not a concerted effort on the part of the Nigerian Government to deepen the economy and create an enabling environment for business, no wonder there is so much income inequality and joblessness. I would imagine that the rebased GDP figures merely throws more challenges in the face of government as opposed to a cause for celebration. There is still so much to do to transition our economy from a pirate economy to an organised economy.

BRIDGING NIGERIA’S INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT - THE SEARCH FOR AN ALTERNATIVE MODEL

The recent study conducted by Mckinsey on Nigeria's Infrastructure requirement threw up the need for the investment of well over 31 Billion Dollars investment annually, well over a 10 year period for Nigeria to bridge her huge infrastructure deficit. Given the huge amount required therefore, it is near impossible to expect government to foot the entire bill, neither will traditional project finance models essentially leveraging medium to long term funds from Banks and Development Finance Institutions do much, given huge of funds required for infrastructure projects and the mirades of needs that DFI's contend with on the African Continent. So projects such as the 2nd Niger-Bridge, the East West Road, Dredging of the River Niger to allow Sea-going Vessels to Dock at in-land Ports, a Standard guage rail line connecting the State capitals and economic centres of Nigeria from North to South, Power Dams, Electricity Transmission Lines, Electricity Distribution Infrastructure and other critical infrastructure are not attended to, affecting the quality of Economic growth, the creation of jobs and the enhancement of the economic well-being and standard of living of Nigerians.

Furthermore given the fact that in government, there are competing needs and limited resources,  the projects needed to jump-start Nigeria's industrial revolution become mere pipe-dreams. So how do we move forward? Where are the risk-takers who will partner with government knowing the risk involved with Community resistance to Tolling and all other forms of payment for access to public infrastructure once concession-ed?  Apart from these, there are also other encumbrances to Public Private Partnerships, which should otherwise have helped unlock the required funding for economically viable public infrastructure projects, chief among such obstacles confronting private participation in public infrastructure provision is funding! A project such as the Lagos Ibadan Expressway will require well over one billion dollars to remodel the road and without a good Financial Model, how will Financial Institutions come together to fund such projects?

DRIVING PPP's THROUGH STRONG REGULATIONS AND BUILDING AN ALTERNATIVE FINANCIAL MODEL FOR INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS

Its been said that government cannot be left to go it alone with regards to bridging infrastructure deficit, but we all know the political risks as well as Financial model risks involved in putting together a Public Private Partnership deal? Hence, you find the failure of PPP projects the like of the Lagos Ibadan Expressway, the Lagos Local Airport and lately the Lekki Link Bridge. But we cannot allow that to frustrate the delivery of economic infrastructure which have potential to create jobs as well as leapfrog growth and development. So we need to think through a proper financial model and a strong regulatory platform for delivering PPP's - one that ensures that projects time horizons are shortened, project partners reap benefits derivable from such projects, with minimum resistance from users of such economic infrastructure, citizens, local community and politicians.

BRIDGING THE FUNDING GAP - HOW CAN PENSION FUNDS HELP?

With the Nigerian Pension reforms, we suddenly have a situation where we have trillions of naira sitting with Pension Custodians which are deployed to all manner of investment which do not add much value. For a while, the CBN under its Financial System Strategy -  FSS2020 - has been trying to help unlock Pension Funds for infrastructure Financing with very little success thus far. I reckon that government needs to throw its weight behind this initiative as it will have multiplier effects in the sense that once we are able to develop critical economic infrastructure such as Roads, Bridges, Rail as well as Power and Energy Infrastructure. it will automatically reduce the cost of doing business, create more jobs, lead to output gains with consequent impact on our Gross Domestic Product.

THINKING OF AN ALTERNATIVE INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING MODEL - ONE THAT OFFERS A WIN-WIN PROPOSITION FOR GOVERNMENT AND ITS PRIVATE SECTOR PARTNERS

I reckon also that in terms of gains accrual to Pension Custodians and Administrators, Infrastructure Financing will have very positive impact as it will help value addition and risk diversification. Also from the Infrastructure Project Owners and Off-takers, the deployment of patient capital will lessen the burden of having an investment-mismatch and limit defaults. My take therefore is that government should throw its political weight behind birthing an alternative funding model for infrastructure projects - one that meets  Nigeria's economic target, makes  us competitive in terms of the ease of doing business and delivers quality growth which creates jobs and enhances the living standards of Nigerians.