Tuesday 6 May 2014

REBASING NIGERIA'S GDP AND THE WORLD BANK REPORT ON POVERTY - MATTERS ARISING

Interesting news, Nigeria's Gross Domestic Products now stands at 510 Billion Dollars, purportedly making Nigeria the biggest economy in Africa, but that is not the real news. The real news is that we have a growing economy side by side growing poverty.The real news is that there is growth in the midst of high unemployment? Does this not point to some form of dysfunction in the macro economy? I platform my argument on three interesting scenarios thrown up by the rebased GDP figures:

1. HOW COME NIGERIA'S NOLLYWOOD IS DOING BETTER THAN BOLLYWOOD WITH A MORE ORGANISED STRUCTURE?
The rebased GDP figures shows that the Services Sector has dethroned Agriculture as the highest contributor to Nigeria's GDP as Services Industry which hitherto contributed less than 10% now contributes about 50% to Nigeria's GDP. This is mainly due to new figures coming through from Telecoms, Information Technology, Movies (Nollywood) and Music under the Services sector. The Services sector raked in about 260 billion dollars (about 40 Trillion naira) out of Nigeria's total GDP figure of 510 billion dollars. The question to ask then is how come Nollywood racked in $5.6bn when Bollywood with a better industry structure is doing $3.2bn? How was the figure for Nollywood calculated without an organised Studio, Box Office and Distribution System? Ofcourse Nollywood indeed has great potential to do more but I reckon that government needs to help create the right structure for the thriving of a creative economy, but that is not currently happening with Intellectual Property rights abuse currently at its highest. I reckon the number of jobs that is being lost to Pirates is something that we need to look into.
2. HOW COME AGRICULTURE CONTRIBUTES ABOUT A QUARTER TO THE GDP WHILE MANUFACTURING IS DOING A PALTRY 7%
Aside from what the current Minister of Agriculture is doing to support small-holder farmers, is there a long term strategy for Agriculture which can push output Northward and help the move from Farm-gate to Factory-gate? This is because normally, Agriculture should function as a primary industry which supports the secondary Industry - Manufacturing. But with Manufacturing contributing only 7% in the rebased GDP figures? Does this not give the government cause for worry? 
3. HOW DO WE TRANSITION OUR ECONOMY FROM A PIRATE ECONOMY TO AN ORGANISED ECONOMY?
From the rebased figures, it is apparent that growth came only from the Nigerian enterprise spirit and not a concerted effort on the part of the Nigerian Government to deepen the economy and create an enabling environment for business, no wonder there is so much income inequality and joblessness. I would imagine that the rebased GDP figures merely throws more challenges in the face of government as opposed to a cause for celebration. There is still so much to do to transition our economy from a pirate economy to an organised economy.

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